9 June 2019 - 00:22 By: Payman Yazdani The odds of success for Japanese PM's visit to Iran
TEHRAN, Jun. 09 (MNA) –US President’s recent retreat from his previous rhetoric stances towards Iran should not be misinterpreted as the White House’s retreat from its policy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran. In line with its maximum pressure on Iran policy, on Friday the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran that target the country's petrochemical industry, including its largest petrochemical holding group, the Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (PGPIC).
The main reason behind the changes to Trump administration’s tone against Iran in fact is internal pressure on him. Americans are against a new war in the region. Also opposition from the US allies which will suffer from great losses in case of any war in the region is another reason behind change to Trump’s tone.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is slated to visit Tehran on Wednesday June 12. He hopes to use his warm relation with Iran and the US to mediate between the countries.
Besides Abe’s warm relations with Iranian and the US leaders there are others reasons that potentially make him a proper mediator including Japan’s efforts to have independent Middle East policy and not having imperialistic record in the region which is a good trust building factor for Iran.
Above all, as the third largest economy of the world Japan is very dependent on the energy importing from the region. Japan imports 80 percent of its consuming energy from the Middle East which passes through Hormuz strait, so any war and confrontation in the region will inflict great losses and damages to the country’s economy and consequently to the world economy.
To answer the question that how Mr. Abe’s efforts will be effective to settle the tensions depends on two factors.
First on the ‘real will’ and determination of the US and Iran to solve the ongoing problems especially the US ‘real will’. One cannot ask for talk and at the same time further undermine the trust between the two sides by taking some hostile measures like new sanctions that the US slapped against Iran’s petrochemical section last night on the eve of Mr. Abe’s visit to Tehran. If there is a real will, even no need to mediator.
Second we have to wait to see that how the Japanese PM will be able to affect the US’ decisions. Iran’s Keivan Khosravi spokesman for the Supreme National Security Council said efforts to remove US extraterritorial sanctions against Iran could guarantee the success of Japanese PM’s visit to the Islamic Republic.
今度の「イラン訪問」はイランの要請によるもの。 トランプの国賓訪日前に、イラン外相が日本を訪問。 河野外相と会談しており、その後、トランプ訪日の際に安部とトランプが協議。 米国も安部のイラン訪問を支持していると言う背景がある。 緊張緩和にイランと友好的関係にある「第三国の日本」を仲介させる事で 米国、イラン、双方が交渉下地を作り上げようと言う思惑がある。 米国、イランが有事でもなれば「ホルムズ海峡封鎖」の危険性があり 世界経済への影響は計り知れない。安部が「メッセンジャー」でも良い訳です。 それで米国、イランが歩み寄れれば万事よし。 だから、イラン訪問には、安倍と河野も同行する。 0055名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 08:49:04.19ID:nTISMEt30 もしもこれで上手くいったら、トランプにはめぐみさんの手を引いて大統領専用機のタラップから降りるぐらいはしてほしい 0056名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 08:52:39.93ID:KybEmToL0 > especially the US ‘real will’. > If there is a real will, even no need to mediator.
これが全てだろ
> Second we have to wait to see that how the Japanese PM will be able to affect the US’ decisions.
Japan PM’s visit should not be taken seriously https://en.mehrnews.com/news/146177/Japan-PM-s-visit-should-not-be-taken-seriously0062名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 09:12:43.86ID:GS52l9Sp0 アメを6カ国核合意に戻るように説得できれば仲介者として成功だけれども ただただアメの強気一辺倒な要求を伝えに行くだけのメッセンジャーボーイならば 伝統的な友好国に恨まれてエネルギー安全保障を脅かすだけw 0063名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 09:15:37.79ID:/JbHwzzl0>>47 支持率が悪い時に解散するバカはいないだろ 野田以外にw 0064名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 09:33:19.88ID:KybEmToL0>>1 これどうすんの?w
イランは核合意を順守、IAEA報告 2019年5月31日 23:57 https://r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO45564750R30C19A5NNE0000074名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 10:13:59.71ID:hfgzHASh0 100兆円あげるから話まとめて! って言うだろう 財源は消費税増税です 0075名無しさん@1周年2019/06/09(日) 10:16:33.85ID:KybEmToL0 イラン政府系メフル通信 https://en.mehrnews.com/news/146177/Japan-PM-s-visit-should-not-be-taken-seriously > It will be a strategic mistake for Iran to take Shinzo Abe seriously on the tensions between Iran and the US. > The Japanese do not have a significant role in the field of international relations, and no one takes them seriously. > Even they eye the US support in their own direct tensions with North Korea. Now, how can they be able to have authority on Iran-US relationship? > The presence of the Japan as mediator in the tension between Iran and the US can even become more complicated due to Japanese ambitions in foreign policy.